It’s been months since we last purposely threw ourselves on rollercoasters for the day, yet the market has done a nice job of doing that for us throughout 2023. We started the year with that ticking noise as you raise higher and higher – lots of job openings, prices going up every single day, interest rates ticking up right alongside, and everyone anxious about the impending descent…

In November, employers added 190,000 jobs, which is better than October but still climbing. We can thank the end of autoworker and Hollywood strikes for a little boost in those numbers. The unemployment rate is holding steady at 3.9%, but it has been creeping up lately.

I like to think of the Federal Reserve of the track’s mechanic. Not necessarily, the architect, but trying to stay out ahead and ease the ups and downs so we don’t fly off the rails. (Economic Crash) If the job numbers drop and unemployment rises, they might hit the brakes with rate cuts. But if hiring stays strong, they might let the coaster keep rolling.

Have you ever been in a situation (doesn’t have to be at an amusement park) where you felt something was going to be scary, maybe even hyped up to be scary, then at the end you felt like, “wait, that was it?” You know, you’re at the top of the 400-foot-tall coaster, and it eases back to Earth at a leisurely slope and the screaming was for nothing. That’s what we want. Economists call it a soft landing.

Job openings are dropping, workers are quitting less, and big companies like Walmart and Spotify are making some downward changes. The labor market is still in decent shape, yet those numbers are down. Wages aren’t skyrocketing. At the same time, disinflation and even deflation of some goods have helped consumers, which in turn is great for companies. Gas prices being down helps everyone. Those same economists would say this is what the beginning of that soft landing.

 If new openings are down, and unemployment is low, that means it’s harder for recruiters to find new openings – but there are new openings. Unemployment rate being low means it is still difficult to find candidates. The fact that everyone has spent a year screaming about the crash at the end of this ride means both sides are reluctant to make changes. Our jobs are harder when everything is stable.

Recruiting requires change; job openings come from change. Those are your twists and turns, and a soft- landing means greater economic stability and less change. Let the recruiters who can’t chase down the next ride leave the park first.